If Trump is impeached, it will be hard for Senate Republicans to vote to convict him
They need to do it anyway.
In December, the House Intelligence Committee released its impeachment report, and its conclusions are stark: President Trump tried to strong-arm Ukrainian leaders into investigating his political rival Joe Biden. He pushed them to inquire as well into the baseless claim that it was Ukrainians, not Russians, who interfered in the 2016 US election. He applied pressure by withholding almost $400 million in aid to Ukraine, along with dangling the idea of hosting President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. And he tried to cover it all up.
Most of this has been known for weeks. While the impeachment hearings have confirmed the initial whistle-blower report and added much detail, their role has not been primarily a fact-finding one. The basic facts have long been clear. The question is whether the president will be held accountable. If the House does impeach him, a trial will follow in the Senate—where Republicans have more than enough votes to acquit. Will they remain firm in support of the president, despite the evidence against him?
If so, their reasons won’t be trivial or strictly tribal. Many senators identify strongly as social conservatives—a group for whom Trump’s election has functioned as a levee against a wave of progressive cultural change, especially on issues of gender and sexuality. His presence in office prevents a Democratic administration from codifying such change and pressing it further.
