Demographic destiny?

I
knew that mainline congregants tend to be older than the general population.
The average member is about 58, whereas the average American is age 38. The
latest survey from Hartford Seminary fills in the
picture with this piece of data: in more than half (52.7 percent) of mainline
Protestant congregations, a third or more of the members are 65 years old or
older.

When
Hartford's veteran researcher David Roozen reported this figure recently, he
added a kicker: given that life expectancy in the U.S. is 78, this means that
these congregations are likely to see a third of their members die over the
next 15 years.

Looking
at similar data, Lovett Weems, a researcher at Wesley Theological Seminary, has
been talking about a "death tsunami" beginning in 2018
that will deliver a crippling blow, in membership and finances, to mainline
churches. (It also means that ministers will be doing lots of funerals.)